Sequence of Returns & Stress Testing Studio
Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk (SRR)
A market crash in the first 1–5 years of retirement forces asset sales at deep discounts. Stress testing validates that your bridge buffer and safe withdrawal rate prevent premature portfolio depletion.
Custom Stress Shock Builder
-35%
Initial year equity drawdownYear 1
Retirement timeline strike year4 years
Years to normalize trend+3.5%
Additional CPI inflation surgeStress Scenario Trajectory Overlay
Simultaneous comparison of Baseline vs Severe Bear vs Stagflation vs Custom Parametric Shock
Stress Scenario Comparison Matrix
Side-by-side resilience evaluation of your household plan across all historical crash regimes
Swipe horizontally to view full crisis matrix →
| Stress Scenario | Shock Dynamics | Bridge Low Point | Ending Balance (Age 65+) | Survival Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline (No Shock)ACTIVE | Standard compounding returns with historical inflation assumptions | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | Applied |
Mild Bear Market | -15% market return in Year 1 of retirement, 2-year recovery | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | |
Severe Bear Market (GFC Style) | -35% market return in Year 1 of retirement, 3-year partial recovery | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | |
Lost Decade (2000-2010 Style) | 0% nominal annual return for the first 10 years of retirement | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | |
High Inflation Shock (1970s Style) | Inflation spikes to 7.0% for 5 years while nominal returns lag at 5.0% | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | |
Stagflation Shock | -25% market drop in Year 1 combined with sustained 6.0% inflation for 5 years | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk | |
Late Bear Market | -30% market drop occurring at Year 15 of retirement (Go-Go into Slow-Go transition) | $0 | $0 | Depletion Risk |